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Amal Belalloufi with Philippe Agret in Tunis, April 12, 2020
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Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman chairs a virtual meeting of G20 oil ministers in Riyadh (AFP Photo) |
Algiers
(AFP) - Algeria faces economic and social turmoil if crude prices continue to
collapse, experts have warned, with the oil-dependent country reeling from a
year of popular protests, political turmoil and now, coronavirus.
The North
African country is an example of how hydrocarbon economies are likely to face
unrest if oil prices remain at near two-decade lows due to the COVID-19
pandemic and a price war between key players Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Top
oil-producing countries agreed Sunday to slash output by nearly 10 million
barrels per day from May 1 to boost prices, Kuwait's Oil Minister Khaled
al-Fadhel wrote on Twitter.
But as
Algerian oil expert Nazim Zouioueche told official news agency APS, any impact
will likely be temporary due to the coronavirus pandemic, leaving Algeria's
economy exposed.
The price
collapse has destroyed Algeria's revenue projections, with President
Abdelmadjid Tebboune acknowledging the "vulnerability" of the
country's oil-dependent economy.
It is
"imperative to put an end to bad practices instilled over a period of financial
well-being, such as waste and a spirit of laziness and overconsumption",
Tebboune has said.
His words
might be too little, too late, as the drop in prices, the coronavirus and
ongoing political uncertainty create a perfect financial and social storm.
'Financial abyss'
Algeria
"is on the edge of a financial abyss", according to Luis Martinez,
North Africa specialist at France's Sciences Po University.
The
government decided to slash public spending in March, after oil prices dipped
to $22.50.
The
country's 2020 budget had been based on an oil price of $50 per barrel, with
growth of around 1.8 percent.
Algiers has
already announced a 30 percent cut to the state budget, without touching civil
servants' wages, as well as cutting its enormous imports bill.
State oil
giant Sonatrach is to halve operating and capital expenditure, from $14 billion
to $7 billion, in order to preserve foreign currency reserves.
But former
Sonatrach CEO Abdelmadjid Attar said in principle, the company "shouldn't
have to reduce hydrocarbon production" as the cuts would affect other
operations.
Meanwhile,
Algeria's foreign reserves dropped to under $60 billion at the end of March,
compared to almost $80 billion at the end of 2018 and over $97 billion at the
end of 2017.
Some
economists are concerned those could quickly run out.
Economist
Ahmed Dahmani warns of multiple dangers: a rapid draining of foreign exchange
reserves, a worsening budget deficit and balance of payments, a sharp
devaluation of the dinar and an inflationary surge, leading to economic
recession and mass unemployment.
Bureaucracy, corruption
"The
government has no choice but to broaden the tax base, to resort to public debt
and negotiate loans," Martinez said. "With the remaining foreign
reserves, that should allow it to hold on until 2021. But after that?"
Others
worry that Algeria will struggle to diversify its economy away from oil and
attract investors.
Economics
expert Aderrahmane Mebtoul expressed doubt the country could recover capital
that has already left, and said Algeria's "bureaucracy, fossilised
financial system and corruption" would keep foreign direct investment
away.
With the
coronavirus disrupting economies worldwide, the pandemic could provide a
scapegoat for the government.
"The
Algerian authorities could in fact argue that the economic and financial
situation is no better" elsewhere, Martinez said.
But in
Algeria, the pandemic follows a protracted political crisis.
The
"Hirak" citizens movement that began in February 2019 brought down
longtime autocrat Abdelaziz Bouteflika a year ago.
Only the
pandemic was able to halt -- perhaps temporarily -- massive weekly anti-government
protests.
And a
continued collapse in oil prices could prove to be the final straw for a
country on the edge.
"It's
not the year 2020 that's on trial, but the 20 years of patronage, nepotism and
corruption" of Bouteflika's reign, Martinez said.