 |
A Syrian
living in Turkey shouts slogans during a protest against the
government of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad after Friday prayers in front of the Syrian consulate in Istanbul August 19, 2011. (Credit: Reuters/Osman Orsal) |
BEIRUT
(Reuters)" - The downfall of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi is likely to
pave the way for increased Western attention to Syria and embolden protests
against President Bashar al-Assad.
The
implosion of Gaddafi's rule after six months of civil war in which the rebels
benefited from sanctions on Gaddafi, a no-fly zone and NATO air strikes may
have implications for Syri's six-month-old revolt and Assad's efforts to crush
it.
"The
international community will now think that its strong intervention in the
struggle (in Syria) will resolve the situation," said opposition figure
Louay Hussein.
"Libya
has raised the morale of the West and it will have a bigger excuse to
intervene. But we reject any military action in Syria."
Hussein and
other opposition activists said however the events in Tripoli would revive
Syrian protesters' hopes.
"What
happened in Libya means a lot for us, it means that the Arab spring is coming
without doubt ... there is no solution to any problem without the will of the
people," said Michel Kilo, a prominent opposition figure.
No country
has proposed the kind of action in Syria which NATO forces have carried out in
Libya. But the West has called on Assad to step down and Washington has imposed
new sanctions over his crackdown, in which the United Nations says 2,200
civilians have died.
Syria has
an alliance with Iran and a key role in Lebanon, despite ending a 29-year
military presence there in 2005. It also has influence in Iraq and supports
militant groups Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah.
ASSAD
DEFIANT
Assad on
Sunday said Syria would not bow to external pressure, which he said could only
affect "a president made in the United States and a subservient people who
get their orders from outside."
"As
for the threat of a military action ... any action against Syria will have
greater consequences (on those who carry it out), greater than they can
tolerate," he said.
Assad has
responded to the unrest with a mixture of reforms and force. He granted citizenship
to hundreds of thousands of ethnic Kurds, ended a state of emergency and
promised to let groups other than his Baath party run in elections.
Analysts
and opposition figures said they expected the situation in Syria to deteriorate
further, with authorities intensifying the crackdown and protesters not backing
down.
"After
what happened in Libya I think he (Assad) will be tougher with the security
option he is taking," Boumonsef said.
"He
sees what (he calls) the international conspiracy on him will be stronger and
now that Gaddafi is out of the way it will move toward him in full strength ...
This is imminent."
Some
opposition figures expressed fears that Libya's endgame might encourage voices
among the opposition calling for the arming of a hitherto largely peaceful
movement in Syria.
"I
fear that some in the opposition who are in a hurry to end the regime, who we
have always warned against repeating the Libyan example, will say now it has
been successful and resort to arms," said Hussein, who was detained during
the uprising.
"But
we will resist such proposals, regardless of where they are coming from."
OPPOSITION
DIVIDED
The
anti-Assad movement is fragmented. "Despite everything that is happening,
the opposition remains stuck over little issues like personal issues between
its leaders," Kilo said.
Boumonsef
said it would try harder, with international help, to unify.
"The
opposition will be motivated more. There is no return and (Assad's) reforms
will not stop anything. It is too late."
Encouraged
after Western leaders called on Assad to step down, Syrian opposition figures
are holding talks in Istanbul to nominate a broad-based council that could aid
in a transition of power if Assad is toppled.
Unlike
previous opposition conferences, which were marked by divisions between
Islamists and liberals, participants said there was broad agreement on 120
nominees for the council from inside and outside Syria.
The council
would speak for dissidents in exile and activists on the ground, opposition
figures told Reuters.
But some
poured cold water on the idea. "There is no interest inside Syria in a
conference happening outside because the public opinion and those inside Syria
believe that what is happening outside is marginal," Kilo said.
"We do
not need a transitional council ... the real challenge is not what should be
done after the regime collapses but for us it is what should be done every day
so that we remain standing."
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