(Reuters) -
Sameh Attallah was among Egypt's "silent majority" who trusted the
army to make way for civilian rule after protesters ousted Hosni Mubarak in
February. For nine months, he stayed home when others hit the street demanding
swifter reform.
That has
changed. Now convinced that the ruling military council wants to cling to
power, he joined protests on Friday that led to violence which has cost 33
lives.
"I was
among those who did not protest after Mubarak stepped down and the army
promised to protect the revolution. But I must say now the army looks to be
robbing people of their revolution," the 29-year-old said in Tahrir
Square, surrounded by debris and the whiff of teargas after three days of
clashes.
For many,
trust in the army has evaporated. Security has not been restored and unrest has
blossomed, with Egypt's first free parliamentary election for decades due to
start on November 28.
Instead of
standing above the political fray, the army-picked cabinet has enraged
politicians by proposing principles for the new constitution that would shield
the army from civilian oversight and give it broad national security powers.
Plenty of
Egyptians still give the army the benefit of the doubt. Some even rue Mubarak's
fall. Yet the army's support may be eroding, even as it seeks to manage its
exit from government while retaining its privileges and political influence.
"It's
a fierce struggle for power along ideological, religious and social lines, and
the military is trying to play the game to maintain its privileges. It's a
struggle for power, resources, turf and authority," said Fawaz Gerges, a
Middle East expert at the London School of Economics.
"What
has happened in the last few days represents the end of the honeymoon between
the military and many Egyptians."
Friday's
protest began as a largely Islamist affair, with demonstrators demanding the
army scrap the constitutional principles. Youths broadened it to target the
ruling military council and its leader Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi.
What
incensed many ordinary Egyptians was the sight of army-backed police
baton-charging protesters in Tahrir Square -- just as the police did during the
anti-Mubarak revolt.
'TANTAWI IS
MUBARAK'
"Right
after Mubarak's ouster, we all felt the military council was supporting and
protecting us, but the injuries and deaths we're seeing now, which they are
condoning, means they are complicit," said 26-year-old Ahmed Hassan.
"The
people want to topple the Field Marshal," is a common protester refrain.
Walls are scrawled with "Tantawi is Mubarak."
The army
says it was only trying to protect the nearby Interior Ministry, not to clear
protesters from Tahrir, and that it will stick to the transition timetable,
holding elections on time and returning to barracks once a president is
elected.
But calls
for a speedier timetable are growing louder. The military agenda suggests a
presidential election may not take place till late 2012 or early 2013, leaving
the army with sweeping executive powers until then.
Many
politicians and many in Tahrir Square want a presidential election by April,
immediately after elections to the upper and lower house of parliament are
completed.
So far the
army has not budged. Instead, it seems to be betting that it can ride out the
protests.
"The
army will not interfere with the protesters in Tahrir and neither will
elections be delayed. This violence and havoc will die out on its own,
gradually," said one army officer said, dismissing the impact violence
could have on public opinion.
This
sanguine approach may rely too heavily on support for the army beyond the
hotbeds of Cairo and other cities. Yet, the mood may be shifting in these
smaller towns and rural areas, typically places where politically conservative
views prevail.
Mohamed Fadl,
a member of the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party in the
agricultural town of Mutubis, said the army had broadly played a "good
role, with some reservations" but said he feared it now wanted the kind of
influence the Turkish military once enjoyed. "We don't accept that,"
he said.
'LEAVING
POWER'
One Western
diplomat said the military had three core interests to protect: ensuring its
leaders would not end up in court like Mubarak, shielding army economic
interests that range from arms factories to plants making household goods, and
guaranteeing the military's privileges and status.
"Leaving
power would be the best means of preserving those interests, but leaving power
without the right guarantees would leave those interests exposed. That is their
big problem: their interests will always be vulnerable," the diplomat
said.
But he said
the army needed to quit before anger "pollutes the relationship" with
the public more generally.
Despite the
unrest, few expect the army will delay next Monday's vote, in part because that
would likely inflame the public further, angering the influential Muslim
Brotherhood and other parties demanding that the transition proceed.
Political
analyst Ammar Aly Hassan said postponing the vote was a "poisoned chalice"
for the army council.
Egypt's
political dynamics are likely to change after the new parliament is elected. So
far, the only place Egyptians have been able to make their voices heard is on
the street.
But
parliament's powers are limited. It will choose the assembly that draws up the
constitution and will have a legislative role, but the army council will still
exercise its "presidential powers" to appoint the prime minister and
cabinet.
Nevertheless,
the assembly will carry a moral weight that the army council might find hard to
ignore, if it can muster the unity to speak with one voice.
"We
cannot underestimate the fragmentation and the huge division among political
factions which allowed the military to do what they did over the last few days
and weeks," said Khalil al-Anani, an Egyptian analyst at Britain's Durham
University.
Modern
Turkey has often been held up as a possible model for Egypt. For decades, the
Turkish military intervened in politics, seeing itself as the guardian of the
secular constitution. Only in recent years have the army's powers slowly been
rolled back.
Egypt's
protesters want their army to return to barracks far more swiftly. But the
struggle may take time.
"Institutions
were almost ruined during the Mubarak regime. Now, various political and social
groups are positioning themselves and turmoil will be the name of the game in
the next 10 years," said Gerges of the London School of Economics.
(Additional
reporting by William Maclean in London and Jonathan Wright in Mutubis, Egypt;
Editing by Alistair Lyon)
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