‘Tunisia wave’ to spare none, analysts warn

The Citizen, By Polycarp Machira , The Citizen Reporter, Sunday, 06 February 2011

Dar es Salaam. Tanzania, like any other African nation, may also experience the copycat anti-government street protests that have engulfed the Arab nations, political analysts say.

Prof Mwesiga Baregu

While the magnitude of the protests may differ, political analysts who spoke to The Citizen over the weekend note that the events currently taking place in the northern African countries could easily spill over to other parts of the continent, and Tanzania is not exempt.

Egyptian people’s uprising has been triggered by a myriad of legal, social and political grievances. These include draconian laws, state brutality, lack of free and fair elections and free speech, as well as corruption, high unemployment, food price inflation, low minimum wages and other economic issues. The experts say these are generally the common problems facing citizens in countries a country like Tanzania.

The chairman of NCCR-Mageuzi, Mr James Mbatia says African states have many similar problems, including grinding poverty, unemployment, corruption and poor governance. He warned that the series of demonstrations by university students should not be taken for granted, as they are voices of a frustrated citizenry.

“What’s in those countries is already taking place in Tanzania, the only difference is that the events here are confined to certain parts of the country. However, if the people want change nothing can deter them,” he said.

A political science and public administration lecturer at the University of Dar es Salaam (UDSM), Dr Alexander Makulilo told The Citizen that Tanzanians are likely to do the same as the Egyptians if the government fails to deliver on its promises. “Tanzania’s situation is not very different from what is happening in the north; when the government fails to provide basic services or eliminate graft, the people turn to extreme actions to change the regime,” he said.

According to Dr Makulilo, the government’s failure to listen to Chadema’s complaints after the announcement of the presidential results in the October 31 polls was a clear manifestation of infringement of democracy.

He said most African governments do not permit democracy to flourish mass protests are likely to erupt when citizenry gets fed up.

However, the political scientist noted that the magnitude of such protests would be minimal in Tanzania at present given the poor social networks. He said protestors in both Egypt and Tunisia communicated intensively through the Internet and other modern communication networks that Tanzanians cannot afford.

“North African countries are more developed and most citizens are well connected with social networks that they used to organise the protests. The situation is different here, but one day people will reach there,” he said.

Prof Mwesiga Baregu of St Augustine University also said the wave of protests that began in North Africa could easily spread to the southern part of the continent. He said problems that triggered protests in Egypt and Tunisia are similar to those Tanzanians face today.

According to the professor, Tanzanians are keenly following what is happening in other countries and will at one point say “enough is enough”.

He predicted that the events in Egypt and Tunisia would bring about a new era “wind of change” and determine the future of Africa.

“We should all come together as global Africans to put forth affirmations of goodness and greatness for Africa’s future because we have all collectively suffered for far too long,” he said.

Dr Azaveli Lwaitama, a lecturer at UDSM, remarked: “All the dictators and undemocratic leaders in the continent must now fear this historic event.” He said the wave of protests in the continent that is slowly spreading deadlier than the guerrilla wars that were waged by rebel leaders to overthrow governents in the past.

The protest also showed that local people, specifically the youth, are increasingly getting ready for change, he said.

Unrests have also been reported in Algeria, where a man torched himself to death in an apparent suicide that echoed that of a young Tunisian, Mohamed Bouazizi, whose death sparked off the trouble in mid-December.

As street protests swept Egypt, neighbouring Sudan watched nervously, faced with its own political and economic malaise, and the opposition calling for popular uprising.

The media reported during the week that 10,000 people had joined a Facebook group calling for anti-government protests across Sudan.