Middle East uprising will put oil giant Saudi Arabia in peril, claims historian

Daily Mail, By MARK ALMOND, 19th February 2011

Just seven days after the fall of Egypt’s Mubarak, the whole Middle East is in turmoil, with bloodshed from Libya to Bahrain.

Tyrants and their well-paid gunmen try to drown opposition to their rules with violence and repression. Civil war and chaos threaten Yemen and Jordan.

This is not just a grim prospect for the people who live there. It is extremely unnerving for the West.

Turm-oil: The fuel-rich autocracies like Saudi Arabia on which we
depend are now facing full-throated revolution, claims Oxford historian Mark Almond

The oil-rich autocracies on which we depend are now facing full-throated revolution.

Libya’s Colonel Gaddafi is willing to shoot as many as it takes to stifle opposition in Libya. But he can’t shoot everyone.

And if he is ousted, there is no certainty that any eventual successor would honour existing contracts with Western oil giants – contracts, incidentally, which were the dubious legacy of Tony Blair’s diplomacy.

Powerful: The downfall of Saudi Arabia's
king Abdullah could ignite a political
blow-out

But it is the rising tide of violence around Saudi Arabia which could ignite a political blow-out of terrifying proportions in the world’s biggest oil producing country.

Even people who hope to see the end of the Saudis’ hand-chopping, wife-beating Wahhabi fundamentalist regime must realise that its downfall will create a global economic earthquake.

The situation in neighbouring Bahrain is a microcosm of what might happen in Saudi Arabia. Don’t let Bahrain’s tiny size mislead you.

This island kingdom sits on the fault-line separating the tectonic plates of the Muslim world and is the fulcrum of American power in the Middle East.

The U.S. Fifth Fleet is based on the island –which is attached to Saudi by a causeway – and pro-Iranian Shi’ites who make up 70 per cent of the population are seething with rage against the pro-Western king.

The remaining 30 per cent of Bahrain’s population are Sunni Muslims, and the bitter Sunni-Shi’ite infighting there could spark a religious civil war which could quickly spread to Saudi Arabia.

Outsiders would pour in. Not just jihadi fanatics. Iran would support the ‘oppressed’ Shi’ites of Bahrain and Saudi.

More...

• Massacre in the Middle East: Horrific video captures Bahrain troops gunning down peaceful protesters in the street

What would America do? Could Obama abandon the pro-Western rulers of Bahrain and Saudi if Iran got involved?

And how then would people in other Arab states such as Egypt react if the West put stopping Iran ahead of People Power? And how might Israel react?

Inspiration: Thousands of reformists gather in Egypt's Tahrir Square
during the protests earlier this month that inspired other Middle East countries

Shoe-waving: Anti-government protesters in Yemen shout slogans
demanding President Ali Abdullah Saleh step down

On top of all this, there is Lebanon, where Iran’s ally Hezbollah took advantage of the upheaval in Egypt to form a new coalition government while no one was looking. All perfectly constitutional and democratic. But a huge blow to Western influence.

The fact that Lebanese democracy can produce an anti-Western majority should remind romantics that people power in the Arab world doesn’t necessarily produce what we want.

In the long term, democratising the Middle East must be a good thing – that is, if we can get to the long term.

In the short term, the world is in for its bumpiest ride for decades.

Oxford University historian Mark Almond is Visiting Professor of International Relations at Bilkent University, Turkey.

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