Mali coup leaves ex-colonial power France in a bind

France24 – AFP, 19 August 2020

The Mali soldiers leading the coup insist that peace is their priority and have
promised to stage elections within a "reasonable" timeframe ANNIE RISEMBERG AFP

Paris (AFP) - Mali's military coup presents former colonial power France with a diplomatic nightmare, having invested considerable military and political capital in a regional anti-jihadist campaign now in peril.

Tuesday's post-coup resignation of President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita following weeks of civil protest against his perceived corrupt and inept rule, has robbed Paris of a key ally in the Sahel where France has -- sometimes unpopularly -- been routing jihadists since 2013.

The military campaign, spearheaded by France's 5,000-plus Barkhane force in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Mauritania and Chad, seeks in the end to bring stability to the conflict- and poverty-ridden region, allowing governments to strengthen institutions and focus on much-needed development.

But now, France faces having to work with a regime born out of Tuesday's coup d'etat against Keita, often referred to as IBK.

"The challenge will be for France to walk a delicate line. It has to condemn the coup. It also has to work with the new leaders," said Michael Shurkin of the California-based RAND Corporation policy think-tank.

"It (France) needs a good outcome, but it has to be extremely careful about influencing the outcome," he told AFP.

Paris issued a condemnation after initial reports of an army mutiny in Mali, but has yet to explicitly denounce the toppling of Keita claimed by coup leaders.

On Wednesday, the French presidency said, "We must deal with the reality of a complicated political situation that has lasted for months...

"We must focus on the return of civilian power and rule of law, with another priority: not to lose the commitment to the fight against terrorism."

Initially expected to last a few weeks, the French Sahel military intervention has been running for seven years at a cost of some $1 billion annually, according to the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

The force has chalked up some wins, but jihadists have continued deadly attacks and 44 French troops have lost their lives in what some have called "France's forever war".

The presence of French boots on the ground has become increasingly unpopular and thousands have protested in Mali and Burkina Faso against what they term "forces of occupation".

Shrugging off the pleas of the international community, Malian soldiers on Tuesday detained the president, prime minister, cabinet ministers and other government officials.

Better to come?

The leaders of the coup condemned by the EU, UN, African Union and regional grouping ECOWAS, insisted that "peace in Mali is our priority" and promised to stage elections within a "reasonable time".

"The junta... does not want to alienate the support of the international community, including Barkhane," tweeted Yvan Guichaoua, a researcher at the University of Kent's Brussels School of International Studies.

"The objective seemingly was mainly to eject IBK and his allies from power."

France itself has been doubtful about Keita's ability to improve security and governance in Mali, say analysts.

And Shurkin believes the coup "could theoretically work out for the best if it yields a government that functions better and that can lay claim to greater legitimacy.

"It has to be acknowledged that things weren’t going well before the coup; Mali under IBK was making little if any progress, which meant that the success of French strategy was questionable anyway," he said.

In the short term, however, French diplomats and military leaders face an uphill battle.

"In a way, it's back to square one," said Jean-Herve Jezequel, Sahel specialist at the International Crisis Group in Brussels.

"Eight years of effort, investment, presence to basically return to the situation of Mali at the time of the 2012 coup, with a confused situation in Bamako, more violent armed insurrections and increased inter-communal violence."

Change in approach

Military historian Michel Goya predicted a political imbroglio that will last for months.

"For the French military, this makes things more complicated. Operations can continue, they can be run independently, but cooperation with the Malian forces will likely be stopped. And armed groups may try to take advantage of the situation to expand their action," he said.

France is also likely to see new reticence from European partners it had been trying to convince to enlarge military operations in Sahel, notably a European special forces group dubbed Takuba and the so-called G5 Sahel, an under-resourced force of regional soldiers.

There will be "a slowdown of major projects while we wait for the dust to settle and are focused on the nature of the new power to be installed in Bamako," said Elie Tenenbaum, a researcher at the French Institute for International Relations.

For Shurkin, an extended transition period, or one that yields more of the same, "would be terrible for France and Mali alike".

"Maybe, just maybe, there will be a relatively quick transition that yields a stronger Mali, one that will meet the requirements of French strategy," he added.

For Jezequel, this was also a chance for France, the Sahel states and other partners to question their approach to providing security aid to the region.

"We cannot sustainably secure a space without changing the forms of governance that manage it," he said.

'It's my dam': Ethiopians unite around Nile River mega-project

Yahoo – AFP, Robbie COREY-BOULET, June 29, 2020

The Blue Nile flowing through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The project is
passionately supported by the Ethiopian public despite the tensions it has stoked
with Egypt and Sudan downstream (AFP Photo/EDUARDO SOTERAS)

Addis Ababa (AFP) - Last week, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's press secretary took a break from official statements to post something different to her Twitter feed: a 37-line poem defending her country's massive dam on the Blue Nile River.

"My mothers seek respite/From years of abject poverty/Their sons a bright future/And the right to pursue prosperity," Billene Seyoum wrote in her poem, entitled "Ethiopia Speaks".

As the lines indicate, Ethiopia sees the $4.6 billion (four-billion-euro) Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam as crucial for its electrification and development.

But the project, set to become Africa's largest hydroelectric installation, has sparked an intensifying row with downstream neighbours Egypt and Sudan, which worry that it will restrict vital water supplies.

Addis Ababa plans to start filling next month, despite demands from Cairo and Khartoum for a deal on the dam's operations to avoid depletion of the Nile.

The African Union is assuming a leading role in talks to resolve outstanding legal and technical issues, and the UN Security Council could take up the issue Monday.

With global attention to the dam on the rise, its defenders are finding creative ways to show support -- in verse, in Billene's case, through other art forms and, most commonly, in social media posts demanding the government finish construction.

To some observers, the dam offers a rare point of unity in an ethnically-diverse country undergoing a fraught democratic transition and awaiting elections delayed by the coronavirus pandemic.

Abebe Yirga, a university lecturer and expert in water management, compared the effort to finish the dam to Ethiopia's fight against Italian would-be colonisers in the late 19th century.

"During that time, Ethiopians irrespective of religion and different backgrounds came together to fight against the colonial power," he said.

"Now, in the 21st century, the dam is reuniting Ethiopians who have been politically and ethnically divided."

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (AFP Photo)

Hashtag activism

Ethiopia broke ground on the dam in 2011 under then-Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who pitched it as a catalyst for poverty eradication.

Civil servants contributed one month's salary towards the project that year, and the government has since issued dam bonds targeting Ethiopians at home and abroad.

Nearly a decade later, the dam remains a source of hope for a country where more than half the population of 110 million lives without electricity.

With Meles dead nearly eight years, perhaps the most prominent face of the project these days is water minister Seleshi Bekele, a former academic whose publications include articles with titles like "Estimation of flow in ungauged catchments by coupling a hydrological model and neural networks: Case study".

As a government minister, though, Seleshi has demonstrated an ear for the catchy soundbite.

At a January press conference in Addis Ababa, he fielded a question from a journalist wondering whether countries besides Ethiopia might play a role in operating the dam.

With an amused expression on his face, Seleshi looked the journalist dead in the eye and responded simply, "It's my dam."

In those five seconds, a hashtag was born.

Coverage of the exchange went viral, and today a Twitter search for #ItsMyDam turns up seemingly endless posts hailing the project.

At recent events officials have even distributed T-shirts bearing the slogan to Ethiopian journalists, who proudly wear them around town.

The dam's wall is 145 metres (475 feet) high. Filling the lake that will form behind it 

will probably take years (AFP Photo/EDUARDO SOTERAS)

Banana boosterism

Some non-Ethiopians have also gotten in on #ItsMyDam fever.

Anna Chojnicka spent four years living in Ethiopia working for an organisation supporting social entrepreneurs, though she recently moved to London.

In March, holed up with suspected COVID-19, she began using a comb and thread-cutter to imprint designs on bananas.

Her #BananaOfTheDay series has included bruises portraying the London skyline, iconic scenes from Disney movies and the late singer Amy Winehouse.

But by far the most popular are her bananas related to the dam, the first of which she posted last week showing water rushing through the concrete colossus.

On Thursday she posted a banana featuring a woman carrying firewood, noting that once the dam starts operating "fewer women will need to collect firewood for fuel".

The image was quickly picked up by an Ethiopian television station.

"Maybe the fact that I'm international, and not Ethiopian, but I'm sort of showing solidarity is meaningful," Chojnicka told AFP when asked why she thought the dam posts were so well-received.

"It shows that this is something that's not only seen as valuable by Ethiopians, but the value is also something that an international person can see."

Political pressure

Big hydro projects have in many parts of the world fallen out of favour in the face of their environmental impact and outsized cost compared with wind and solar.

In Ethiopia, though, fervour for the GERD has eclipsed such doubts, and stoked pressure on Abiy to start filling it next month regardless of what happens in upcoming talks.

Failure to do so would prompt a backlash that would be "catastrophic for the prime minister and his government", said Jawar Mohammed, a leading opposition politician.

Abiy has so far shown no sign of retreating from the timeline.

In October, the same month he won the Nobel Peace Prize, he went so far as to assure lawmakers that "millions" of troops could be mobilised to defend the dam if necessary.

Billene, his press secretary, used similarly direct language in her poem extolling the dam's virtues.

"When I say 'it's my dam'," she wrote, "I damn well mean it too."

New EU chief pledges to back Africa on Ethiopia trip

Yahoo – AFP, Robbie BOULET, December 7, 2019

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen in Ethiopia's capital Addis
Ababa, her first trip outside Europe since being appointed (AFP Photo/
EDUARDO SOTERAS)

Addis Ababa (AFP) - European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen assured Africa of the EU's strong support during a visit to Ethiopia on Saturday, her first trip outside Europe since assuming her post.

The former German defence minister, who took office on December 1, landed in the capital Addis Ababa in the morning and headed to the African Union headquarters for talks with AU chief Moussa Faki Mahamat.

"I hope my presence at the African Union can send a strong political message because the African continent and the African Union matter to the European Union and to the European Commission," she said after the meeting.

"For us, for the European Union, you are more than just a neighbour."

Von der Leyen, who has prioritised the fight against climate chang, said the EU and AU could collaborate on the issue.

"You here on the African continent understand climate change better than anyone else," she said.

She and Faki also discussed migration and security issues.

"Honestly I don't have all the answers to these challenges but I am convinced that together we can find answers," she said.

Faki for his part called for greater international mobilisation to counter security threats, including terrorism.

'We are at your side'

Von der Leyen also met with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, congratulating him on winning this year's Nobel Peace Prize.

"I think that Ethiopia has given hope to the whole continent," she said, adding that "I want you to know that we are at your side".

Abiy thanked her for the EU's support but said he hoped for more funding to spur economic reforms.

"We're still demanding more financial support because we are ambitious. As Madam President mentioned, when you are a young prime minister you are also more ambitious and you want to deliver more," said Abiy, who will receive his Nobel in Oslo on Tuesday.

Von der Leyen congratulated Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed for winning 

this year's Nobel peace prize (AFP Photo/EDUARDO SOTERAS)

The EU and Ethiopia also signed agreements worth 170 million euros ($188 million) on Saturday.

Of that sum, 100 million euros will go towards transport and infrastructure in the East African country, 50 million for the health sector, 10 million for job creation and 10 million for elections ahead of landmark polls next year.

Saturday's agenda also included a sit-down between von der Leyen, the commission's first woman president, and Ethiopian President Sahle-Work Zewde, the first woman to hold that title.

Speaking to journalists after her meetings, von der Leyen said it was "important" for the EU to continue to support Abiy's ambitious reform agenda.

"They have started but we need a long breath to see the effects that these reforms are bringing along," she said.

Migration and security

The EU is Africa's largest trading partner and biggest source of foreign investment and development aid.

But the two blocs have struggled in recent years to find ways to curb the number of African migrants heading north to Europe using perilous sea routes.

Just this week at least 62 migrants died when a boat capsized off the coast of Mauritania.

Both African and European officials are keen to address the root causes of migration like poverty.

The EU has also been a strong supporter of the AU's peace and security efforts.

Its African Peace Facility, a mechanism established in 2004, has allocated more than 2.7 billion euros for peace and security operations, targeting 14 African-led operations in 18 countries.

Yet European officials have signalled they want to shift away from providing stipends for troops in places such as Somalia, where the EU is a main backer of the regional peacekeeping force known as AMISOM.

The AU has struggled to get member states to impose a 0.2 percent levy on eligible imports so the body can provide more of its own financing -- an initiative the EU supports.

So far just 17 African countries have followed through on that commitment.

Sudan generals, protest leaders sign transition deal

i24NEWS – AFP,  August 17, 2019

FILE - In this June 30, 2019, file photo, Sudanese protesters shout slogans as
they march during a demonstration against the military council, in Khartoum, Sudan.

The deal follows a lengthy period of unrest in Sudan, where eight months of protests have gripped the country

Sudan's military council and protest leaders on Saturday signed a landmark power-sharing deal that paves the way for a transition to civilian rule, sparking rapturous crowds to fill the streets of Khartoum in celebration.

The agreement was signed by Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, deputy chief of the military council, and Ahmed al-Rabie, representing the Alliance for Freedom and Change protest umbrella group.

Heads of state, prime ministers and dignitaries from several countries attended the Khartoum ceremony.

Thousands of cheering people gathered outside of Friendship Hall where the documents to govern Sudan's 39-month transition were signed

The agreement follows a lengthy period of unrest in Sudan, where eight months of protests have gripped the nation.

The protests began with demands to oust longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir who was eventually deposed in April.

Demonstrations quickly resumed after the military council who ousted Bashir seized power away from voices calling for civilian rule.

Talks between the protesters and the military were mediated by the African Union and Ethiopia, which brought the two sides together again even after a protest sit-in outside military headquarters was brutally dispersed by men in military fatigues on June 3, sparking international outrage and a telecommunications blackout. 

The constitutional declaration formalizes the political agreement reached between the military and  protest leaders on July17 which calls for a transition administration guided by an 11-member council.

Under the transition scheme, six members of the transition council are to be civilians while the remaining five seats will be comprised of military figures.

The signing Saturday of a consitutional declaration paving the way for civilian rule comes nearly eight months after the start of Sudan's protests https://t.co/qZQV2APX6s

— AFP news agency (@AFP) 18 augustus 2019

African leaders launch 'historic' free trade deal

Yahoo – AFP, Emmanuel AKINWOTU and Patrick FORT, July 7, 2019

Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari signs onto the landmark African trade
deal at the AU summit in Niamey (AFP Photo/ISSOUF SANOGO)

Niamey (AFP) - African nations officially launched a landmark trade agreement at the African Union summit in Niger on Sunday, with the long sought-after agreement hailed as a historic step towards "peace and prosperity" across the continent.

After 17 years of tough negotiations, the AU launched the "operational phase" of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in what AU commission chairman Moussa Faki had described as a "historic" moment.

"An old dream is coming true, the founding fathers must be proud," said Faki, adding that AfCFTA would create "the greatest trading area in the world".

Niger's President Mahamadou Issoufou hailed it as "the greatest historical event for the African continent since the creation of the Organisation of African Unity in 1963," referring to the AU's predecessor.

AU officials announced the launch of the five "operational instruments" of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Nations agreed to shared "rules of origin, the monitoring and elimination of non-tariff barriers, a unified digital payments system and an African trade observatory dashboard", the AU commission announced.

The agreement was given a boost when the presidents of Nigeria and Benin signed on to rapturous applause on Sunday morning at the two-day summit in Niger's capital Niamey.

Niger's President Mahamadou Issoufou hailed the deal as "the greatest historical 

event for the African continent since the creation of the Organisation of African Unity 

in 1963" (AFP Photo/ISSOUF SANOGO)

With Nigeria and Benin on board, 54 of the 55 AU member countries have now signed onto the deal, with holdout Eritrea announcing it will consider joining the pact.

Around 4,500 delegates and guests -- including 32 heads of state and more than 100 ministers -- attended the AU summit in Niamey, which has been revamped and boasts a brand-new airport, upgraded roads, and new hotels for the occasion.

'Game changer for Africa'

The agreement was formalised at the end of April when the agreement crossed the launch threshold, which required ratification by at least 22 countries.

The zone will be operational from July 1st 2020, giving countries time to adapt to the agreed changes, Issoufou said.

Malawi's director of trade, Christina Chatima, told AFP the trade agreement as a "game changer for Africa."

"Most of us export with Europe and the US. It's about time we started trading more with each other," she said.

However despite the launch, there are still key issues leaders have yet to resolve.

Leaders could not agree on a common criteria for rules of origin for some sectors.

The trade deal signed at the African Union Summit in Niger took years to negotiate 

(AFP Photo/ISSOUF SANOGO)

"An agreement has not yet been reached on some of these issues," Chatima said. "On textiles, even the automotive sector. The AU secretariat is meant to come up with proposals on how we can agree," she added.

The AfCFTA commits the majority of countries to 90 percent tariff cuts within a five year period -- reducing barriers to trade on the continent.

Countries on a United Nations list of 'Least Developed Countries' will have 10 years to cut tariffs, whilst a group of six countries -- including Niger and Malawi -- will have at least 15 years, Chatima said.

Amaka Anku, Africa analyst at Eurasia group, described the deal as a positive step but said implementing the AfCFTA was still "a long way from taking off", with concerns on how many of the new regulatory agencies for the trade agreement would be funded.

The AU estimates that the deal will lead to a 60-percent boost in intra-African trade by 2022.

At the moment, African countries trade only about 16 percent of their goods and services among one another, compared to 65 percent with European countries.

Security on the continent

Also on the summit agenda is security -- an issue afflicting the Sahel in particular.

Summit host Niger has faced constant attacks by jihadist groups.

Security in Niamey was tight for the summit (AFP Photo/ISSOUF SANOGO)

Its fellow members in the G5-Sahel security pact -- Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso and Mauritania -- will seek backing at the AU summit to push for a greater UN security force to address the terror threat.

The countries hope to activate Chapter VII of the UN Charter, a Nigerien security source told AFP. The chapter allows for the UN Security Council to determine a threat to peace and propose measures, including military deployment, to deal with it.

"No prosperity, no integration is possible without peace," said Faki, who stressed the importance of an AU Peace Fund launched in 2018 to finance security activities and called on member states to fulfil their financial promises.

So far, only $116 million has been received for the envisaged $400-million fund.

The leaders are also set to discuss boosting intelligence cooperation and the global migration crisis.

Huawei turns to Africa to offset US blacklist

Yahoo – AFP, Pierre Donadieu and AFP's African bureaus, June 9, 2019

Chinese tech giant Huawei, now in the middle of US-Chinese tensions, has
looked to bolster its ties in Africa (AFP Photo/Pau Barrena)

Paris (AFP) - As the US leads a drive for the West to shun Huawei over security fears, the Chinese tech giant has sought to strengthen its position in Africa, where it is already well-established.

Huawei has taken a leading role in developing next-generation 5G mobile phone networks around the world.

But it has been in turmoil since Washington charged its equipment could serve as a Trojan horse for Chinese intelligence services.

The world's second smartphone marker fiercely denies the allegations, but the US has urged countries to avoid it and several companies have distanced themselves.

They include Google, whose Android operating system runs most smartphones.

And as Washington and Beijing duke it out in an escalating trade war, nations around the world are faced with the dilemma of having to choose a side between the world's two top economies.

Russian President Vladimir Putin weighed in on Friday, slamming Washington's attempt to "unceremoniously push" Huawei out of the global market. Earlier in the week, Russia's MTS telecoms giant signed a deal with Huawei to develop a 5G network in the country.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, a guest of Putin at an economic forum in Saint Petersburg, said China was "ready to share technological inventions with all partners, in particular 5G technology".

But will the escalating fight lead to African nations having to choose between China -- the continent's top trade partner -- and the US?

"For African countries this trade war may end up a binary choice. It will be very difficult for Africa to just ignore" it, said Aly-Khan Satchu, an independent economic analyst based in Nairobi.

'Very aggressive strategy'

Huawei, now a major factor in US-Chinese tensions, has looked to strengthen its ties in Africa, last week signing an agreement to reinforce its cooperation with the African Union.

"This was a way to show that Huawei is still present in Africa and that they want to remain a major player by positioning themselves in this very important growth sector," said Ruben Nizard, an economist and Sub-Saharan Africa specialist at the French financial services firm Coface.

The deal comes after the French newspaper Le Monde reported in 2018 that China had spied on the AU's headquarters in Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, citing sources inside the organisation.

The report said the spying began in 2012 after the completion of the AU's new headquarters that was financed by China, and was only noticed when technicians discovered data on the building's servers was being sent to Shanghai.

Both China and the AU reject the allegations.

Huawei has established itself across Africa since launching in Kenya in 1998, and now operates in 40 countries, providing 4G networks to more than half of the continent.

It will also showcase 5G -- the next-generation mobile phone network that will transmit data at far greater speeds -- in Egypt for the Africa Cup of Nations, which will be held from June 21 to July 19.

"Africa is a market Huawei had identified and which they conquered thanks to a very aggressive strategy based on cheap financing and speed of execution," Satchu told AFP.

"The fact that Huawei has equipped the AU says it all," he added.

'Big Brother Beijing'

Huawei's presence in Africa goes far beyond selling smartphones and building mobile networks.

In South Africa, it provides training at the country's top universities, this year launching a specialised course on 5G.

Kenya's government signed a 17.5-billion-shilling ($172 million) deal with Huawei in April to build a data centre and "smart city" services.

The Chinese giant also offers a "safe city" surveillance programme.

This initiative, according to the firm's website, "can prevent crimes targeted towards the normal citizen, tourists, students, elderly persons etc before they occur".

It has been deployed in Kenya's capital Nairobi as well as Mauritius, with 4,000 "smart" surveillance video cameras set up at 2,000 sites across the Indian Ocean island nation.

Some media outlets in Mauritius have condemned the system as "digital dictatorship" from "Big Brother Beijing".

But Ghanaian Security Ministry Albert Kan-Dapaah, for one, says Huawei's video surveillance technology helps catch criminals.

"When a crime has been committed, thanks to the cameras, we work magic," Kan-Dapaah says in a promotional video for the Chinese firm.

Huawei Marine, the company's submarine cable arm, is helping to deploy a key 12,000-kilometre (7,450-mile) cable system connecting Africa to Asia.

With Huawei so deeply embedded in Africa, the continent may find it difficult to avoid becoming a collateral victim of the US-China bust-up.

"Africa is caught in the middle of a trade war that they should not have to take part in, because they have nothing to gain," said Nizard.

African summit urges Sudan 'democratic transition' within 3 months: Egypt

Yahoo – AFP, April 23, 2019

Sudanese protesters have continued to demand a civilian government since the
military ousted president Omar al-Bashir ealier this month (AFP Photo/OZAN KOSE)

Cairo (AFP) - African leaders at an emergency summit in Cairo urged Sudan's military rulers on Tuesday to implement a democratic transition within three months, the Egyptian presidency said.

Egypt and representatives from several other African nations agreed on "the need for more time" for Sudanese authorities and political actors "to implement peaceful, organised and democratic transition measures", it said in a statement.

They also urged the African Union to extend by three months a deadline, currently the end of April, for Sudan's military council to hand power to a civilian authority or face suspension from the regional bloc.

That would partially ease international pressure on the council to hand over to civilian rule.

The army toppled longtime president Omar al-Bashir on April 11, but protestors have continued to hold mass rallies demanding a swift transition to a non-military government -- calls the council has so far resisted.

Heads of state and senior officials from states including Ethiopia, Nigeria, Rwanda and South Africa took part in the summit.

"We agreed today into the urgent restoration of a constitutional system through a democratic, political transition owned and led by the Sudanese themselves," said Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who currently chairs the AU.

"This is to institute a comprehensively democratic political system and entrench the rule of law" as well as safeguarding human rights, he added.

The summit statement also expressed "the complete support of the African Union and neighbouring countries for Sudan as it faces it political, security and economic challenges".

The participating countries also said they would help Sudan tackle cross-border crime including arms and human trafficking in order to maintain "regional stability".

Seeking influence, Egypt's Sisi to chair African Union

Yahoo – AFP, Aziz El Massassi, February 9, 2019

Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (C) and Rwanda's President Paul Kagame (R)
-- the outgoing and incoming AU chairs (AFP Photo/KHALED DESOUKI)

Cairo (AFP) - Nearly six years after the African Union shut it out in the cold, Egypt will take the organisation's helm -- and strengthening multilateral powers is unlikely to be on the agenda.

Cairo's tenure "will probably concentrate on security and peacekeeping", said Ashraf Swelam, who heads a think tank linked to the country's foreign ministry.

Incoming AU chair President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will likely focus less on "financial and administrative reform" than his predecessor, Swelam added.

Such reform was the cornerstone of outgoing AU chairman Paul Kagame's year in the role.

The Rwandan president has pushed for a continent-wide import tax to fund the AU and reduce its dependence on external donors, who still pay for more than half the institution's annual budget.

An African diplomat told AFP that Egypt -- along with fellow heavyweights South Africa and Nigeria -- does not want a powerful AU.

This diplomat, who has been tracking AU affairs for over a decade, said Cairo has "never forgotten" its suspension in 2013.

The near year-long lock out from the AU came after Egypt's army deposed Islamist president Mohamed Morsi, who in 2012 had become the country's first democratically elected president.

Sisi is due to take the helm at the AU's biannual heads of state assembly, which takes place on February 10 and 11 at the AU's gleaming headquarters in Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa.

As usual, the continent's multiple security crises will be high on the VIPs' agenda.

Cairo was suspended from the AU after its army deposed Islamist president 

Mohamed Morsi, who in 2012 had become the country's first democratically 

elected president (AFP Photo/Simon MAINA)

Rwanda's ambitious funding proposal will also likely be on the table.

But it has met resistance not only from Egypt, but other member states, so may fail to pass.

Reform of the AU Commission is an even more sensitive topic. In November 2018, most states rejected a proposal to give the head of the AU's executive organ the power to name deputies and commissioners.

Egypt backs free trade zone

But the Egyptians are "fully engaged" in pushing other AU reforms, according to an AU official.

One key initiative backed by Cairo is the Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA), an initiative agreed by 44 of 55 member states in March 2018.

The single market is a flagship of the AU's "Agenda 2063" programme, conceived as a strategic framework for socioeconomic transformation.

However, the trade pact has met resistance from South Africa.

Sisi will therefore need to push hard for ratification of this accord, if it is to come into effect.

For Elissa Jobson, head of Africa advocacy at the International Crisis Group, Sisi can be expected to "use the presidency to increase his country's standing among other African states".

"This is not a departure from previous administrations", particularly that of the outgoing chairman, she added.

Delegates at the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia (AFP 

Photo/Zacharias ABUBEKER)

"Kagame showed that the presidency -- for a long time considered to be merely a figurehead -- can be used to promote national interests and boost a leader's international profile," Jobson said.

The AU official -- who requested anonymity -- said Rwanda's president will remain a point person for the organisation's broad reform agenda, despite handing over the chair.

Limited power

But there are major limits to the power wielded by the post of AU chairman.

Kagame suffered a crushing disavowal by the AU after expressing "serious doubts" about the results of Democratic Republic of Congo's recent presidential election, which was officially won by Felix Tshisekedi.

While also disputed by the Catholic church, the results were validated by DRC's constitutional court and saluted by continental heavyweights South Africa, Kenya and Egypt.

For Liesl Louw-Vaudran at the Institute of Security Studies, Sisi wants Egypt to be considered part of Africa, not just the Arab world -- but that will require work.

"North African countries have a reputation of looking in a different direction than Africa, and Egypt will have to overcome that stereotype," she said.

The AU's theme for this summit is "Refugees, Returnees and Internally Displaced Persons" presented within a security context.

Cairo is casting itself as a champion in the battle against illegal immigration -- and as a model for hosting refugees on its soil.