Debate flares on 'Twitter revolutions,' Arab Spring

The Daily Star, AFP, Rob Lever, March 10, 2013

A picture taken on January 23, 2011 shows inhabitants of the central Tunisian
 region of Sidi Bouzid chanting slogans during a demonstration in front of the
government palace in Tunis. AFP PHOTO / FETHI BELAID

                            

WASHINGTON: How important were Twitter, Facebook and other social media in toppling regimes in the Arab Spring uprisings?

Amid a fierce debate in academic circles, an upcoming book argues that social media and new technology made a key difference in successful uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt and helped foster grassroots movements in other Arab nations.

The book by Philip Howard and colleagues concludes that digital media was "consistently one of the most important sufficient and necessary conditions" for the Arab Spring movements.

"There was a longstanding democracy movement in these countries that for many years tried many tactics but none of them worked," Howard told AFP.

He maintained that new media made a difference because it "has so fundamentally changed the way people think about their options."

The Arab Spring movements "involved a networked public of generally younger folks," which was "structurally different" than prior movements headed by a charismatic leader, Howard said.

Howard, a University of Washington communications professor who is visiting at Princeton, said authoritarian regimes had been accustomed to controls on traditional media but were unable to keep up with the rapid pace of Twitter and Facebook organizing at that time.

"Democracy's Fourth Wave? Digital Media and the Arab Spring," written with Muzammil Hussain, counters the conclusions of other academics who found that the impact of social media were exaggerated in the West.

Earlier research led by Sean Aday of George Washington University concluded that new media "did not appear to play a significant role in either in-country collective action or regional diffusion" during the 2011 uprisings.

"This lack of impact does not mean that social media or digital media generally were unimportant," they said in a report for the US Institute of Peace last year.

"But it does mean that at least in terms of media... (especially Twitter), data do not provide strong support for claims of significant new media impact on Arab Spring political protests."

The 2012 study said the tweets and Facebook posts probably did more to spread information outside the affected countries and could have led to "a boomerang effect that brought international pressure to bear on autocratic regimes."

A separate study led by Juergen Pfeffer and Kathleen Carley at Carnegie Mellon University found that "the pattern of spread of the revolutions was not related to the pattern of social media usage."

"In other words, the social media did not cause the revolutions," they wrote.

Many activists in the region maintain that social media helped keep up the momentum of the protests that began in Tunisia, toppled two more dictators in Egypt and Libya, and continue to shake the region.

And a study by Zeynep Tufekci of the University of North Carolina and Christopher Wilson of the United Nations Development Program supported that notion.

"Social media in general, and Facebook in particular, provided new sources of information the regime could not easily control and were crucial in shaping how citizens made individual decisions about participating in protests, the logistics of protest, and the likelihood of success," they wrote in the Journal of Communication.

Some researchers point out that social media's power appeared to be limited to organizing protests and failed to help those people create a stable government after the uprisings.

George Washington University's Marc Lynch said social media became polarizing after regimes fell in Egypt and Tunisia.

"While social media boosters envisioned the creation of a new public sphere based on dialogue and mutual respect, the reality is that Islamists and their adversaries retreat to their respective camps, reinforcing each other's prejudices while throwing the occasional rhetorical bomb across the no-man's land that the center has become," he said in a Foreign Policy magazine blog.

Even those who credit social media in the Arab Spring say it seems unlikely that the popular uprisings can be replicated in other places, because regimes have found new ways to control and track dissidents.

"It is a bit of a game," Howard said. "Democracy activists used digital media to catch dictators off guard, but we're now in a situation in the 'late spring' countries where the regimes figured out some of the tricks."

He added that "the Facebook and Twitter story may be over because authoritarian regimes have learned how to use these for control" but that it would be a mistake of give up on social media.

"There is always some new tool, because there are democracy activists who are desperate," Howard said. "I don't know what it's going to be, but I think there will be some predictable surprises."

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Online, some are more equal than others

"THE OLD SOUL 2013 TOOLKIT" – Jan 13, 2013 (Kryon Channelling by Lee Caroll) - (Text version)

“ …   Attitude Adjustment (Social Networking, Internet, New Paradigm)

Let me talk about number three, attitude adjustment. Some of you are starting to put together some things that Kryon has said in the past. Years ago, I channelled information that has now come to fruition and now you can begin to understand it, but then, you did not. We gave you this phrase: "When everyone can talk to everyone, there can be no secrets." In your current Earth society, this has now become something called social networking. Even before this term existed, I told you about it. There would be a time on the planet when all could talk to all, instantly. Can you see how that would disarm old paradigms of communication? Do you see how that might disarm information that was incorrect? Do you see how that might disarm drama and untruth? When everyone can talk to everyone - this is what is happening!

So, technology has given you the beginning of something that some of you, especially the older ones, look at and don't want anything to do with. You say, "It's a fad of the young people." I want you to adjust your attitudes toward this. Let a young person show you what they can do and how many friends that they can talk to all at once, instantly. Let them show you what happens when they want to communicate something so they put it in a certain place and, suddenly, hundreds know instantly. It is a new paradigm of the way Human Beings are going to communicate.

I wish to tell you where that's going to eventually lead, for social networking has no borders. What happens when a young Israeli is talking to a young Iranian or a Palestinian about something they saw on their networking devices? The ideas fly across the borders in a way that they never could before. What happens to the intermingling of friends in a technical paradigm where hundreds talk to each other instantly, perhaps in a land where they never did before? The result? It will continue to create understanding about those they only have heard about or have been told about. Now they can see and hear them, and will know they all want the same thing! This is a new paradigm of communication, but more than that, it becomes the way of the future, where everyone can know everything accurately and almost instantly.  It will be one of the catalysts for peace on the planet.

There is more here than meets the eye, dear ones, and your attitude is everything. For if you look at all this and say, "Well, this is a fad, and is just for the young," if this is you, then you're missing it totally. Let a young person explain what they can do and let the light bulb go on in your mind, for the evolution of the Human species is here and this is never going away. If you don't like all this, then social networking is only going to get worse for you! We say that in a humorous and facetious way.

There will come a day when this will be the way of it in all things. It will be impossible to be a hermit. You'll always have more friends than you thought possible. These are the things we are asking you to look forward to, but it's going to require you to look at them differently and adjust. That was number three. …”

"The End of History"- Nov 20, 2010 (Kryon channelled by Lee Carroll) – (Text Version)

“… The Internet - The first Worldwide Tool of Unification

Now I give you something that few think about: What do you think the Internet is all about, historically? Citizens of all the countries on Earth can talk to one another without electronic borders. The young people of those nations can all see each other, talk to each other, and express opinions. No matter what the country does to suppress it, they're doing it anyway. They are putting together a network of consciousness, of oneness, a multicultural consciousness. It's here to stay. It's part of the new energy. The young people know it and are leading the way.

I gave you a prophecy more than 10 years ago. I told you there would come a day when everyone could talk to everyone and, therefore, there could be no conspiracy. For conspiracy depends on separation and secrecy - something hiding in the dark that only a few know about. Seen the news lately? What is happening? Could it be that there is a new paradigm happening that seems to go against history?... "