Fewer babies herald 'economic miracle' for Africa: UN

Yahoo – AFP, Dario Thuburn, 18 Nov 2014

People walk around the bustling Gikomba Market on July 10, 2014 in Nairobi,

Kenya (AFP Photo/Simon Maina)

London (AFP) - Fewer babies could mean an "economic miracle" for sub-Saharan Africa, with gains of $500 billion (400 billion euros) a year over three decades for the region, the UN Population Fund said Tuesday.

The State of World Population report said a total of 59 nations were poised for a "demographic dividend" when the working-age population outnumbers the rest due to declining fertility rates.

The United Nations agency said these nations -- almost all in Africa -- could follow the example of East Asian economies like South Korea whose rise since the 1970s was helped by demographics.

A UN Population Fund report says 59

nations were poised for a "demographic 

dividend" when the working-age population

outnumbers the rest due to declining

fertility rates (AFP Photo/Fati Moalusi)

"Recent shifts in the age structure towards younger populations present an unprecedented opportunity to catapult developing economies forward.

"The 'economic miracle' experienced by East Asian economies could become a reality for many of today's poorer countries," the report said.

It said there was also evidence to suggest that the demographic dividends could make the transition to more democratic forms of government "more likely".

The report found that the share of the youth population peaked in around 2010 in the world's least developed countries and "has begun declining", meaning that the working-age population in those countries will more than double by 2050.

In Nigeria, the most populous nation in Africa, the report said the demographic wave could "treble per capita income in a generation" as long as it was accompanied by the right policies and investments.

"The right investments are education, particularly girls' education. Girls must go to school, they must stay in school," the fund's executive director Babatunde Osotimehin told AFP in an interview.

"We also believe that health services, particularly reproductive health services, must be made available so women can make choices over their lives," he said.

But the Nigerian, a trained doctor, warned that health systems in countries in west Africa affected by Ebola had been "overwhelmed" and said that this could have a knock-on effect for the care of pregnant women and children.

"You actually might end up with more fatalities from that than you would from Ebola," he said.

'Unmet need' for contraception

The report said governments should be ready to take advantage of the demographic dividend as there was only a "one-time opportunity" for rapid economic growth offered by this windfall.

"Without a solid economic and policy framework to back it up, the demographic dividend may not be fully realised," it said.

The countries named in the report also include some nations from continents other than Africa like Afghanistan, Iraq, Papua New Guinea and Yemen.

The report said that all the countries were on a path of demographic transition that begins with a lowering of infant mortality rates, which in turn encourages parents to have fewer children and invest more in their education and healthcare.

It noted that women in developing countries "generally have more children than they desire" and there was "an unmet need for modern contraception".

"Today there are more than 220 million women who want family planning and are not getting it," Osotimehin said.

An Afghan child uses a donkey to

 transport grass on the outskirts of 

Jalalabad, October 20, 2014 (AFP

Photo/Noorullah Shirzada)

The report homed in on the development of East Asia -- defined as China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Singapore -- where average annual income per capita more than quadrupled between 1965 and 1995.

It quoted research by David Bloom, a professor at Harvard University's School of Public Health, showing that the "demographic dividend" accounted for up to one third of that rise in income.

"We reckon that if all of Africa does this and in a timely fashion it will add about $500 billion to the GDP of Africa per year. Its' huge. It's about a third of what (GDP) is now," Osotimehin said.

Global fertility rates internationally have been dropping since the 1950s, from an average of six children per woman to about 2.5 today.

While the trend could be an economic boon for the developing world, the report warned that it was becoming a problem for mature economies.

"This demographic reality, tied to the ongoing shift in the balance of world population from younger to older people, creates risks," the report said.

In developed economies "smaller cohorts of young people may be tasked with paying more per person for the pensions and healthcare costs of larger older populations".

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"Recalibration of Free Choice"–  Mar 3, 2012 (Kryon Channelling by Lee Carroll) - (Subjects: (Old) Souls, Midpoint on 21-12-2012, Shift of Human Consciousness, Black & White vs. Color, 1 - Spirituality (Religions) shifting, Loose a Pope “soon”, 2 - Humans will change react to drama, 3 - Civilizations/Population on Earth,  4 - Alternate energy sources (Geothermal, Tidal (Paddle wheels), Wind), 5 – Financials Institutes/concepts will change (Integrity – Ethical) , 6 - News/Media/TV to change, 7 – Big Pharmaceutical company will collapse “soon”, (Keep people sick), (Integrity – Ethical)  8 – Wars will be over on Earth, Global Unity, … etc.) - (Text version)

“…  3 - Longer Life is Going to Happen, But…

Here is one that is a review. We keep bringing it up because Humans don't believe it. If you're going to start living longer, there are those who are frightened that there will be overpopulation. You've seen the way it is so far, and the geometric progression of mathematics is absolute and you cannot change it. So if you look at the population of the earth and how much it has shifted in the last two decades, it's frightening to you. What would change that progression?

The answer is simple, but requires a change in thinking. The answer is a civilization on the planet who understands a new survival scenario. Instead of a basic population who has been told to have a lot of children to enhance the race [old survival], they begin to understand the logic of a new scenario. The Akashic wisdom of the ages will start to creep in with a basic survival scenario shift. Not every single woman will look at herself and say, "The clock is ticking," but instead can say, "I have been a mother 14 times in a row. I'm going to sit this one out." It's a woman who understands that there is no loss or guilt in this, and actually feels that the new survival attribute is to keep the family small or not at all! Also, as we have said before, even those who are currently ignorant of population control will figure out what is causing babies to be born [Kryon joke].

Part of the new Africa will be education and healing, and eventually a zero population growth, just like some of the first-world nations currently have. Those who are currently tied to a spiritual doctrine will actually have that doctrine changed (watch for it) regarding Human birth. Then they will be able to make free choice that is appropriate even within the establishment of organized religion. You see, things are going to change where common sense will say, "Perhaps it would help the planet if I didn't have children or perhaps just one child." Then the obvious, "Perhaps I can exist economically better and be wiser with just one. It will help the one!" Watch for these changes. For those of you who are steeped in the tradition of the doctrines and would say that sounds outrageously impossible, I give you the new coming pope [Kryon smile]. For those of you who feel that uncontrolled procreation is inevitable, I encourage you to see statistics you haven't seen or didn't care to look at yet about what first-world countries have already accomplished on their own, without any mandates. It's already happening. That was number three.….”